Saturday, October 28, 2006

Cold outbreak brings snow to three states

A fast-moving cold snap from the Antarctic has swept across south eastern Australia sending temperatures plummeting as snow and hail fell across three states.

Tasmania copped the brunt of the chilly weather last night, with snow settling in hills 400m above sea level and falls reported in some beachside suburbs.

Victoria and the ACT also felt the chill.

Launceston experienced its coldest October night on record at minus one degrees celsius while temperatures on Mt Wellington near Hobart dropped to minus six degrees, not quite reaching the coldest ever October evening of minus 7.7 degrees.

Plumeting sea surface temperatures confirm the phase change

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.

Further to our previous posts on the solar-terrestrial complex Nasa has announced confirmation of the cooling climate ahead.

The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity."

"Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace," says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low."

According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity ~20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. The reasons for this are explained in the Science@NASA story Solar Storm Warning.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

A grand solar minimum inducing a temperature decrease on Earth

As we posted here there is increasing evidence of a strong solar minimum and global cooling.The inverse signals are quite clear and documented in the literature.

Sami Solanki and his team at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany, have looked at the concentrations of carbon-14 in wood and beryllium-10 in ice as far back as back 11,000 years ago. The similarity of the fluctuations in both isotopes convinced them that they were seeing effects due to the sun. The peaks and slumps showed a recognisable pattern: "Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash," says Weiss. "It's a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon."

A grand solar minimum is approaching and may occur at cycle 25 or at least at cycle 26. We give 6 arguments to support this:
1) The lower and upper rest-latitudes of the boundaries between opposite polarity large scale unipolar regions have approached the equator that much that the various regions interfere
2) The strong violation of the Gnevychev-Ohl rule during cycles 22-23 as predicted by Makarov using the polar butterfly diagrams.
3) Some authors (Makarov, Svalgaard) predict on different bases a maximum Wolf number of about 75 for cycle 24
4) The polar reversal for cycle 23 occurred very late: only after 7.6 year, while for cycles 20-23 this was 5.7 ± 0.3 year.
5) A theoretical consideration based on the energy and the gradients of the angular velocity.

The grand minimum will lead to a temperature decrease which according to various estimates may be about 1 degree.

As we predicted here for the NZ winter (very cold) which was against the warmer then average predicted by Niwa we suggest a very cold winter for the NH .

The low magnetic connection of the sun and earth is now at levels not seen since pre world war 2,there then the experience of NZ was heavy snow.

New Zealand’s worst 20th-century snowstorm

Late July 1939 saw widespread snow when a deep trough lay east of New Zealand, allowing cold south-westerlies to bring Antarctic air over the country. It snowed from Cape Maria van Diemen in the far north to Southland, where flooding occurred when the thaw set in. Dunedin was worst affected. There was snow a metre deep in some of the hill suburbs, which ran short of food. In Auckland on 27 July, 5 centimetres of snow fell on the summit of Mt Eden, and the Bombay Hills shone white for most of the morning.

Saturday, October 07, 2006


As we have already said here there are three states to the solar complex on off and both.It is intersting there are a substantial number of papers to be published on the inverse relationship of the solar complex,Phil Stott suggests a paradigm shift,this may be more of a scientific backlash of poor analysis of the astrophysics by climate scientists.This will provide some intersting debate in the coming months as the astrophysicts(Brazil) play the climate scientists(Andorra) in a robust game of celestial mechanics(football).

There is already discussion on this at the RAS sun-climate conferece in Russia last weekend,and debate forming in scientific literature here

It is known as the Little Ice Age. Bitter winters blighted much of the northern hemisphere for decades in the second half of the 17th century. The French army used frozen rivers as thoroughfares to invade the Netherlands. New Yorkers walked from Manhattan to Staten Island across the frozen harbour.
Sea ice surrounded Iceland for miles and the island's population halved. It wasn't the first time temperatures had plunged: a couple of hundred years earlier, between 1420 and 1570, a climatic downturn claimed the Viking colonies on Greenland, turning them from fertile farmlands into arctic wastelands.

Could the sun have been to blame? We now know that, curiously, both these mini ice ages coincided with prolonged lulls in the sun's activity - the sunspots and dramatic flares that are driven by its powerful magnetic field.
Now some astronomers are predicting that the sun is about to enter another quiet period. With climate scientists warning that global warming is approaching a tipping point, beyond which rapid and possibly irreversible damage to our environment will be unavoidable, a calm sun and a resultant cold snap might be exactly what we need to give us breathing space to agree and enact pollution controls. "It would certainly buy us some time," says Joanna Haigh, an atmospheric physicist at Imperial College London.

Global average temperatures have risen by about 0.6 °C in the past century, and until recently almost all of this has been put down to human activity. But that may not be the only factor at work. A growing number of scientists believe that there are clear links between the sun's activity and the temperature on Earth. While solar magnetic activity cannot explain away global warming completely, it does seem to have a significant impact. "A couple of years ago, I would not have said that there was any evidence for solar activity driving temperatures on Earth," says Paula Reimer, a palaeoclimate expert at Queen's University, Belfast, in the UK. "Now I think there is fairly convincing evidence."

What has won round Reimer and others is evidence linking climate to sunspots. These blemishes on the sun's surface appear and fade over days, weeks or months, depending on their size. More than a mere curiosity, they are windows on the sun's mood. They are created by contortions in the sun's magnetic field and their appearance foretells massive solar eruptions that fling billions of tonnes of gas into space. Fewer sunspots pop up when the sun is calm, and historically these periods have coincided with mini ice ages.

The number of sunspots and solar magnetic activity in general normally wax and wane in cycles lasting around 11 years, but every 200 years or so, the sunspots all but disappear as solar activity slumps (see "Field feedback"). For the past 50 years, on the other hand, the sun has been particularly restless. "If you look back into the sun's past, you find that we live in a period of abnormally high solar activity," says Nigel Weiss, a solar physicist at the University of Cambridge.

Fortunately, an indirect record of the sun's moods stretching back thousands of years has been preserved on Earth in the concentrations of rare isotopes locked into tree rings and ice cores. The story begins way out beyond the orbit of Pluto, at the boundary of the sun's magnetic field. While the sun is magnetically calm, its field extends around 12 billion kilometres into space, but the field puffs up to 15 billion kilometres when the sun is active. Cosmic rays - the high-energy particles from deep space that are constantly hurtling towards us - are deflected by the field, so at active times far fewer of them reach the Earth.

The sun and climate

The simplicity of nature is not to be measured by that of our conceptions. Infinitely varied in its effects, nature is simple only in its causes, and its economy consists in producing a great number of phenomena, often very complicated, by means of a small number of general laws.

Pierre Laplace

It always bothers me that,according to the laws as we understand them today,it takes a computing machine an infinite number of logical operations to figure out what goes on in no matter how tiny a region of space,and no matter how tiny a region of time.How can all that be going on in that tiny space?.Why should it take an infinite amount of logic to figure out what tiny piece of space/time is going to do? So I have made the hypothesis that ultimately physics will not require a mathematical statement, that in the end the machinery will be revealed,and the laws will turn out to be simple, like the chequer board with all its apparent complexities.

Richard Feynman

There are a number of flawed assumptions on the adequacy of GCM models to accurately reflect the exogenous variable forcing’s such as solar. The assumed parameters of solar variance are normally based on the visible wavelength oscillations or the seasonal oscillations of TSI and vertical energy transport through some simplistic equations. Measurements and analysis is usually undertaken on 1 or 2 parameters and the simplistic models used in GCM do not reflect the observations or indeed the external energy budget.

GCM are also inadequate in modeling climate variability and T for predicting global climate patterns. Inadequacies are seen in the assimilation of chemical parameterization due to the different physics of chemical thermo diffusion and new chemical reactions that are observed due to exogenous forcings such as galactic and solar radiation across all spectrums.

The failure of GCM models to identify the secondary and tertiary energy variables (photochemical) sees Lipschitz continuity becoming unstable due to these small energy inputs. Therefore as the models are sensitive to initial conditions, assimilation of these chemical parameters and inverse solar variance is a necessary component for climate models.

In Simplistic terms the reconstructions consider the sun to be a heat engine that has an on/off switch with oscillations from each state .In reality there are three states on/off/ and both .

The “heat engine” of the Sun is closely related to convective and radiation transfer of free energy in the solar interior, which proceeds basically at low Mach– Alfven numbers,i.e., at a relatively small involvement of the magnetic field. The solar “dynamo” in this sense is a product rather than prime cause of solar activity. The latter in this broader meaning is understood as a fundamental property of a star with relatively small variability of energy release and transfer in its interiors against the background of much greater steady energy flux supported by nuclear fusion processes in gravitationally confined core of the Sun. From this point of view the phenomena considered on the Sun are an example of a complex self-organization in a non-equilibrium open physical system with the fluxes of free energy and mass. The “magnetic degree of freedom” from this standpoint is subordinate and controlled by other, more powerful global processes. However, locally in some areas and at some time intervals this degree of freedom can be predominant over others, which is the case during flares. Here, we deal with all manifestations of well-known general laws of physics, characteristic for nonlinear processes with dissipation.

There are a number of ways the sun effects climate.
-A change in the solar constant of (wavelength) irradiance output.
-Changes in ultraviolet irradiance that modulates temperature, atmospheric chemistry, and climatic dynamics such as precipitation and cloud formation .
-Indirect and indirect influences by solar radiation and cosmic radiation(galactic)
-Changes in magnetic and gravitational constants(solar).

The solar activity in all its manifestations is subject to regular and irregular chaotic variations in quite large ranges of amplitudes, durations, and other characteristics that have revealed themselves some way in the time intervals under analysis. This general rule does not exclude coronal mass ejections and flares, sunspots etc which represent with respect to each other not the cause and effect (sometimes, such an unjustified assumption is made),but rather two observable manifestations of a single dissipative process related to an increased transport of free energy from the interiors of the Sun outwards into its upper atmosphere and heliosphere and dispersal into space and the solar system. This free energy is redistributed in thermal, magnetic, kinetic, gravitational, and radiation forms, their relative fractions being changed from event to event depending on the situation
determined by the boundary conditions and initial state.

In addition,other channels of dissipation of free energy play an important role, for example, the thermal flows that are transferred mainly by electrons along the field into lower and colder parts on the solar atmosphere. A certain, usually lesser fraction of energy is spent for the development other kinetic processes (including acceleration of suprathermal tails in the distribution function of charged particles and formation of numerous small scale irregularities) and quickly variable processes (including convective and wave disturbances in the upper solar atmosphere). There are no doubts that, generally, direct energy cascades prevail in the solar atmosphere, since free energy in different forms is delivered from the interiors of the Sun to be emitted into open space mainly in the form of emission. However, inverse energy cascades undoubtedly take place and play important role in the redistribution of free energy and in the formation of dynamic structures in the solar atmosphere.The spectral region near 5-min oscillations in the photosphere can serve as an example. The ratio and balance between the direct and inverse energy cascades on the Sun still are studied insufficiently well(although the emission fractions and process are understood.

The second important remark can be made that any adequate description of physics of the processes involved is possible only taking into account the transport of energy, momentum, and mass in considered open systems with their complex space-time structure of corresponding flows. In this case the conceptions of equilibrium and stability of isolated system can serve as useful idealization only in the simplest cases, as well as models of replenishment from above, below, or from side of the considered segment. In general, the main difficulty is that there are no sufficient observational data in order to separate such isolated system and thus to localize the consideration of causes and effects. In the future, for quantitative estimation of the degree of openness of one or another morphological element it is convenient to use so-called Triest numbers which represent the ratios of internal, external, and connecting flows of mass, momentum, and energy.

The solar terrstrial model pictured allows simplication of the process and celestial mechanics.

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