Thursday, January 26, 2006

Vehicle emissions wh

Vehicle emissions what the Greens do not tell you Part 1

Since the state of the planet speech from the Greens I have been wondering what planet they get their resource material from. There are always a number of issues in scientific research but when someone quotes from outdated material or omits important findings from research the probability of them being just thick, moves to the question of them being politically dishonest.

Fitzsimons said this

Exhaust pollution from vehicles kills as many New Zealanders each year as car crashes do and the Government’s latest plan to deal with this problem is just not enough, the Green Party says.

“Those who die from the effects of exhaust pollution are the most vulnerable – the very old and the very young and they deserve the best protection the Government can afford them, Green Party Co-Leader Jeanette Fitzsimons says.

“People do not have a right to kill others from air pollution just to get cheap vehicles. While it’s true that not everyone can afford newer vehicles, there is no shortage of cheap old cars in New Zealand already without bringing in more. We should be adding to the fleet at the top end, not the bottom end.

The Niwa report they are quoting from is already outdated and the Booz Allen –Leeds university one is the latest for NZ.

This however uses flawed methodology as the environmental conditions(wind and higher rainfall )and population agglomerations are not scaleable due to infinite regress problems with the instringent variables .

This is a common mistake with many researchers here, in extrapolation of data models from overseas studies to NZ and adjusting them to meet the demographics of NZ.

The EC external costs of Transport project that is always updating looks at all modes of transport.

The models incorporate the cost of maintenance ,production and disposal of equipment that brings into question the real costs of passenger trains and buses.

The methodology was applied to a variety of case studies in different countries, giving a
European-wide overview of site-specific results. The technologies assessed cover passenger and goods transport with road, rail, and waterway transport.

It can be concluded that health impacts dominate the damages quantified in this study; in
Particular, mortality due to primary (PM2.5)
Carcinogens, which were expected to play an important role due to their high specific toxicity, proved to be of much lower importance compared to the particles. The reason is, that carcinogens are only emitted in small quantities.

It was found, that the population density around a road is a key parameter for the magnitude of impacts, particularly for diesel vehicles. This effect is caused mainly by the importance of the primary particles for the total damage. Based on the case studies, three main categories of locations could be identified:
· agglomerations (areas of highest population densities over a large area) e.g. Paris: ca. 10 million people on 50 x 50 km2,
· urban areas (high population density over a large area), e.g. Amsterdam, Barnsley,
Stuttgart: ca. 2 million people on 50 x 50 km2,
· extra-urban areas (medium to low population densities).

The study that incorporated relevant epidemiological information across Europe found that health risks are only relevant to particulate emissions of 2.5m and not the secondary constituents such as SO S O3 N and NOX
Once the particulates get to such a small size they become entrapped in the terminations of the Bronchiole and can cause damage.

The pollutants have no acute morbidity and have chronic health effects.

Correlation of the studies also identified the mot at risk groups. These were road workers with exposure to products being laid. Transport workers who worked in enclosed environments with vehicles (truck loading and unloading in warehouses etc.) and vehicle maintenance workers.

If these are removed from the hospital admission surveys ,as well as others with additional causalities such as smokers ,industrial process workers,etc .
The relative risk reduces to negligible rates within normal variance of health deviation within the normal population.

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Migrating Black swan

In his famous analogy Karl Popper said" if all swan are white ,we should not be looking for great quantities of white swan,we should instead look for a single black one"

Popper has argued (I think successfully) that a scientific idea can never be proven true, because because no matter how many observations seem to agree with it, it may still be wrong. On the other hand, a single contrary experiment or series of observations can prove a theory forever false.

Nobel laureate Niels Born also commentated on the problem of induction.

" . no observation or experiment, however extended, can give more than a finite number of repetitions'; therefore, 'the statement of a law - B depends on A - always transcends experience. Yet this kind of statement is made everywhere and all the time, and sometimes from scanty material. '

In other words, the logical problem of induction arises from
(1) Hume's discovery (so well expressed by Born) that it is impossible to justify a law by observation or experiment, since it 'transcends experience';
(2) the fact that science proposes and uses laws 'everywhere and all the time'. (Like Hume, Born is struck by the 'scanty material', i.e. the few observed instances upon which the law may be based.) To this we have to add
(3) the principle of empiricism which asserts that in science only observation and experiment may decide upon the acceptance or rejection of scientific statements, including laws and theories.

Recently we have interesting questions arising from the biogenic methane emmisions of living plants http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20060114/fob1.asp

Or how about the fallacy of sea level changes from polar and glacial melt as disproved to the House of Lords http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we18.htm

Or This

Does anyone remember the glaciers that once threatened Florida and caused white spruce trees to grow in Georgia? Archeological evidence proves that sub-Arctic forests grew 18,000 years ago where orange groves and pecan trees now flourish. How about that mini-Ice Age of 1100-1600 A.D.? History books recount the cold weather endured by the Northern Hemisphere during that period. More recently, 20th century weather records detail the paralyzing cold and snow that often visited Western Oregon to freeze the Willamette and Columbia rivers."

What about the hurricane events unprecedented they say http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4403

There may be another reason or we do not understand climate as well as we think.What is Russian scientific thought...

There is still no united opinion on the reasons for global warming. Scientists from the Central Aerological Observatory of the RF hydrometeorological organization Roshydromet and the Lebedev Physics Institute have voiced their views on the subject.
They believe that cosmic rays play a large role in this process and they offer a physical explanation for this effect.

A flow of cosmic rays constantly falls onto the upper limit of the atmosphere. Under interaction with the atmosphere it gives rise to secondary radiation. A maximal flow of secondary cosmic rays is observed in the stratosphere at altitudes of 15-20km and it is affected by solar activity. Cosmic rays ionize air in the stratosphere and the troposphere, which explains the electrical conductivity of air at these altitudes and the electrical activity of storm clouds. The electrical field created by the Earth’s charge accelerates adherence of light ions to uncharged aerosol particles, and charged aerosol particles become the centres of water vapour condensation, on which cloud droplets arise, far more easily than uncharged particles. This leads to an increase in nebulosity in the lower part of the troposphere, which influences the flow of solar energy and, accordingly, the temperature of the near-Earth atmosphere.

A reduction in the flow of cosmic rays, observed in the 20th Century, is accompanied by a fall in the speed of ionisation and electrical conductivity of air in the stratosphere and the troposphere, a drop in the storm activity and voltage of the Earth’s electrical field and a reduction of low cloud cover, meaning a rise in the temperature of the near-Earth layer of air.A jump is expected in the 200-year cycle of the flow of cosmic rays in the 21st Century and the authors of the hypothesis believe there will be not a further warming of the climate but quite the opposite – climate cooling.

Time will tell which of the directly contradicting forecasts for climate this century will be justified.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4631666.stm hmm

And today another black swan landed on the frozen lake

Sea level rise due to increased melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps will be much lower in the 21st Century than previously estimated. However, decay of mountain glaciers in due to global warming will be much more rapid than previously thought. These are the major results of a study conducted in cooperation with the Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, which is published in the scientific magazine Nature.

Of course this contradictory analysis in the scientific ? journal nature has differing observations

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Scientific Evolution of Theory

In recent weeks we have seen the discourse and discreditation of the work of Korean stem cell research. A peer reviewed publication in a “reputable” scientific journal.

Also we have seen the discovery of methane production during the respiratory process of living plants .This changed the existing theory by reevaluating the model process and its variables, This was unusual but not unique it that it questioned existing textbook theory.

These are the norms of scientific enquiry. Just because it is published in a reputable journal or an existing theory says x =y does not mean it is cast in tablets of stone !.

This is where the MSM and focal groups fail badly .In the urgency of brand promotion they accept what is written is Gospel .It is not it is still merely best theory that is formed through the scientific process.

The transformation of the interpretation of science and the contemporary views on the ways science operates in both form and validation, and the variances of the determinants of science have caused obfuscication of the basic tenets and norms of the characteristics of the scientific model. This has formed an ideological involvement in scientific validation that has created uncertainty and confusion. and. a convergence between reality and virtuality that have obscured the outcomes and development.

The loss has been one of order and objectivity, and its replacement by chaos and controversy. The underlying philosophical conditioning, the interpretation of the results, rather then the scientific model and reality. The Divergence from Realism and its objective reality and existence to one of the Feyerabend model of anything goes and his promotion of anarchy as an antidote against epistemology and the scientific method.

Just because you read it in your favorite newspaper does not mean it is factual or it will not be subject to revision.

Now we have more breaking news of fabricated research by a Norwegian Researcher into cancer research that was published in the Lancet.

This is why we need to question the thinking and objectivity of having Sue “thousands will die”Kedgley as Chair of the parliametary Health select committee.Every time new research into risk probabilities of various health risks is published she preaches her Gospel of factual disorder.


Friday, January 06, 2006

The 100 commandments

no 59 Though shall not beat though child
,though shall instead do lines.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

New Coins for 2006 NZ First

The reserve bank has decided to issue new coins for 2006.In the abscence of any sensible monetary policy from any one party it has decided to issue them reflecting their policies expected outcomes.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

New Coins for 2006 United Future

The reserve bank has decided to issue new coins for 2006.In the abscence of any sensible monetary policy from any one party it has decided to issue them reflecting their policies expected outcomes.

New Coins for 2006 Labour

The reserve bank has decided to issue new coins for 2006.In the abscence of any sensible monetary policy from any one party it has decided to issue them reflecting their policies expected outcomes.

Monday, January 02, 2006

New Coins for 2006 Greens

The reserve bank has decided to issue new coins for 2006.In the abscence of any sensible monetary policy from any one party it has decided to issue them reflecting their policies expected outcomes.

Scientific procedure.

Both the MSM and single issue fanatics seem to think that science theory is fact.That because a theory or hypotheseis enters the main area of debate that the observations immediately become law or gospel and though shalt not object to their interpretation of the gospel indeed their religion says it is in stone and though shalt not change.

Indeed as Nikolai Bezroukov writes " the intellectual pogrom, destruction of real science by pseudoscience committed in the name of a particular political agenda and more or less openly supported by the ruling party/government officials. It is also (and probably more important) a self-sustainable cult-like system of distortions, omissions, and lies that are designed to support faulty or fraudulent research of the selected "politically correct" pseudo-scientists.

The Merton norms of scientific process can be thought better as a simple flowpath like this

Observation/facts --Hypothesis-Experiment-Laws-Theory.

Each part of the process is always subject to change or reevaluation.

Two important parts of the process are the verifiability of claims and peer review.

Verifiability includes the refeering process for scientific articles and the repeatability of the experiments,

Peer review and most SIF get misconstrued on this part is a review of process and not always the underlying theory.Indeed the peer review may be as part of a similar organisation or another part of the organisation.

Harold Morowitz formulated four commandments for the scientific theory that should be adhered to .

1)Though shall not violate the laws of physics and chemistry.for these are expression of divine immanence.

2) Though shall not trespass the Razor of Occam and multiply hypotheses,but shall formulate the simplist of stories.

3)Though shalt adopt a principle of continuity so that each stage of the grand scenarion connects
with the proceeding and succeeding stages.

4)Though shall eschew miracles,for as Spinoza taught,they contravene the lawfulness of the Universe.

With these tools in mind you can view the new scare or calamity with an objective perspective.

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